Tutorial

Tutorial Release 4.2Lumina Decision Systems, Inc. 26010 Highland Way Los Gatos, CA 95033 Phone: 650-212-1212 Fax: 650-240-2230 Web Site: www.lumina.com Copyright notice Information in this document is subject to change without notice and does not represent a commitment on the part of Lumina Decision Systems, Inc. The software program described in this document is provided under a license agreement. The software may be used or copied, and registration numbers transferred, only in accordance with the terms of the agreement. It is against the law to copy the software on any medium except as specifically allowed in the license agreement. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval systems, for any purpose other than the licensee’s personal use, without the express written consent of Lumina Decision Systems, Inc. This document is © 1993-2010 Lumina Decision Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. The Analytica® software program described in this document is copyrighted: © 1982-1991 Carnegie Mellon University. © 1992-2010 Lumina Decision Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Analytica was written using MacApp®: © 1985-1996 Apple Computer, Inc. Analytica incorporates Mac2Win technology, © 1997 Altura Software, Inc. Analytica intes the PCRE library, ©1997-2008, University of Cambridge. The Analytica software contains software technology licensed from Carnegie Mellon University exclusively to Lumina Decision Systems, Inc., and includes software proprietary to Lumina Decision Systems, Inc. The MacApp software is proprietary to Apple Computer, Inc. The Mac2Win technology is technology to Altura, Inc. Both MacApp and Mac2Win are licensed to Lumina Deci- sion Systems only for use in combination with the Analytica program. Neither Lumina nor its Licensors, Carnegie Mellon Univer- sity, Apple Computer, Inc., and Altura Software, Inc., make any warranties whatsoever, either express or implied, regarding the Analytica product, including warranties with respect to its merchantability or its fitness for any particular purpose. Analytica is a registered trademark of Lumina Decision Systems, Inc. Credits The Analytica Tutorial was written by Brian Arnold and Lynda Korsan with Max Henrion and Randa Mulford (Expert Support, Inc.). New releases have been edited by Lonnie Chrisman, Richard Morgan, Paul Sanford and Fred Brunton.Contents About Analytica . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Tutorial overview.......................................................................................................... 3 Installing Analytica ....................................................................................................... 4 Conventions used in this tutorial .................................................................................. 4 Assumed background .................................................................................................. 5 Chapter 1: Using the Rent vs. Buy Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Opening the Rent vs. Buy model ................................................................................. 8 Becoming familiar with the Diagram window ............................................................... 9 Accessing Help Resources .......................................................................................... 9 Computing output values ............................................................................................. 9 Changing input values and recomputing.................................................................... 12 Examining and changing uncertain input ................................................................... 15 Displaying alternative uncertain views ....................................................................... 17 Using the Rent vs. Buy model: summary................................................................... 21 Saving your model ..................................................................................................... 21 Quitting Analytica ....................................................................................................... 23 Chapter 2: Exploring the Rent vs. Buy Model . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Recognizing influence diagrams ................................................................................ 26 Opening Object windows ........................................................................................... 29 Moving between Object windows............................................................................... 30 Using the Attribute panel............................................................................................ 32 Inspecting definitions in the Attribute panel ............................................................... 33 Opening modules....................................................................................................... 34 Inspecting values in the Attribute panel ..................................................................... 37 Displaying results....................................................................................................... 39 Exploring the Rent vs. Buy model: summary ............................................................. 42 Chapter 3: Analyzing the Rent vs. Buy Analysis Model . . . . . . 43 Examining the difference between renting and buying .............................................. 44 Importance analysis ................................................................................................... 45 Performing parametric (sensitivity) analysis .............................................................. 48 Evaluating alternative decisions................................................................................. 51 Analyzing the Rent vs. Buy Analysis model: summary .............................................. 58 Chapter 4: Creating Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Creating a new model ................................................................................................ 60 Editing a diagram ....................................................................................................... 61 Creating variable nodes ............................................................................................. 61 Saving your model ..................................................................................................... 64 Deleting a variable ..................................................................................................... 65 Moving nodes............................................................................................................. 66 Editing variable titles .................................................................................................. 67 Drawing arrows between nodes................................................................................. 68 Deleting an arrow....................................................................................................... 69 Connecting multiple arrows........................................................................................ 70 Entering attributes into the Object window................................................................. 72 Defining a variable as an explicit value...................................................................... 74 Definible as a function of other variables ................................................... 76 Entering attributes using the Attribute panel .............................................................. 79 Defining a variable as a list ........................................................................................ 81 Viewing results in the Result window......................................................................... 83 Defining a variable using a built-in function ............................................................... 84 Analytica Tutorial iContents Saving your model ..................................................................................................... 86 Summary: Creating Models........................................................................................ 87 Chapter 5: Working with Arrays (Tables) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Summarizing variables using Expression syntax....................................................... 90 Fast Tony’s Generic Wheels...................................................................................... 91 Creating an index variable ......................................................................................... 91 Defining a variable as a table..................................................................................... 92 Combining arrays....................................................................................................... 94 Adding a new dimension to an array.......................................................................... 95 Using conditional expressions.................................................................................... 96 Viewing the results of a multi-dimensional array........................................................ 97 Adding a new value to an index ................................................................................. 98 Using local variables and indexes in an expression................................................. 100 Reducing an array using subscripts......................................................................... 102 Completing cash flows ............................................................................................. 102 Combining dissimilar arrays..............................................