Social Networks in New Product Forecasts and Marketing [Elektronische Ressource] / Christian Pescher. Betreuer: Martin Spann
107
pages
English
Documents
2011
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107
pages
English
Ebook
2011
Le téléchargement nécessite un accès à la bibliothèque YouScribe Tout savoir sur nos offres
Social Networks
in New Product Forecasts
and Marketing
Christian Pescher
I
DISSERTATION
zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades
eines Doktors der Wirtschaftswissenschaften
der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät
der Universität Passau
Eingereicht bei:
Prof. Dr. Martin Spann
Zweitgutachter:
Prof. Dr. Rolf Bühner
Datum der Disputation:
14.07.2011
II
Table of Content
Table of Content .................................................................................................................... III
Index of Tables ...................................................................................................................... VI
Index of Figures ...... VII
Index of Symbols .. VIII
Index of Abbreviations .......................................................................................................... IX
1. Introduction ........... 1
1.1 On the Relevance of Social Interaction in Forecasting and Marketing ........................... 1
1.2 Goal of Thesis ................................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Structure of Thesis ............................................................................................................ 4
2. A Comparison of Methods to Measure Social Networks .................................................. 6
2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 7
2.2 Social Networks ................................................................................................................ 8
2.2.1 The Relevance of Social Networks in Marketing ..................................................... 8
2.2.2 Influence in Social Networks .................................................................................... 8
2.3 Methods to Measure Consumers’ Networks ................................................................... 10
2.3.1 Total Networks ........................................................................................................ 11
2.3.2 Snowballing ............................................................................................................. 11
2.3.3 Egocentric Networks ............................................................................................... 11
2.3.4 Characteristics of Contexts of Network Studies and Suitable Methods to Identify
Networks .......................................................................................................................... 13
2.3.5 A Comparison of the Methods to Measure Networks ............................................. 14
2.4 Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 16
3. Social Network Based Judgmental Forecasting .............................................................. 18
3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 19
3.2 Aggregation Information ................................................................................................ 20
3.2.1 Methods to Pool Information .................................................................................. 20
3.2.2 Weighting in Aggregation ....................................................................................... 21
3.3 Empirical Study .............................................................................................................. 25
3.3.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 25
3.3.2 Forecasting Tasks .................................................................................................... 27
III
3.3.3 Weights .................................................................................................................... 27
3.3.4 Results and Discussion ............................................................................................ 30
3.5 Implications and General Discussion ............................................................................ 31
4. Considering Influentials in Market Forecasts ................................................................. 33
4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 34
4.2 Influentials’ Impact on Purchase Decisions .................................................................. 36
4.2.1 Drivers of Social Influence ..................................................................................... 36
4.2.2 Considering the Role of Influentials in Market Forecasts ....................................... 37
4.3 Methodological Approach .............................................................................................. 37
4.4 Empirical Study .............................................................................................................. 38
4.4.1 Goal and Research Design ...................................................................................... 38
4.4.2 Measures .................................................................................................................. 40
4.4.3 Results ..................................................................................................................... 44
4.5 Discussion ...... 49
5. Brokers in Social Networks – Importance for Marketing Research? ........................... 51
5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 52
5.2 Concept of Brokers ......................................................................................................... 53
5.2.1 Brokers and Social Influence: Hypotheses .............................................................. 54
5.2.2 Overview ................................................................................................................. 58
5.3 Empirical Study .............................................................................................................. 58
5.3.1 Research Design ...................................................................................................... 58
5.3.2 Measures .. 58
5.3.3 Results ..................................................................................................................... 60
5.4 Discussion ...... 62
6. Consumers’ Forwarding Behavior in Mobile Marketing Campaigns – A Decision-
Model ....................................................................................................................................... 64
6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 65
6.2 Related Literature and Development of Hypotheses ...................................................... 67
6.2.1 Word-of-Mouth in Viral Campaigns ....................................................................... 67
6.2.2 Factors that Influence Consumers’ Decision-Making ............................................. 67
6.2.3 Stages of Consumers’ Decision-Making in the Referral Process ........................... 68
6.2.4 Development of Hypotheses ................................................................................... 69
6.3. Empirical Study ............................................................................................................. 73
6.3.1 Goal and Research Design ...................................................................................... 73
6.3.2 Measures .................................................................................................................. 74
IV
6.3.3 Results and Implications ......................................................................................... 75
6.4 Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 79
7. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 81
7.1 Summary ......................................................................................................................... 81
7.2 Implications and Outlook ............................................................................................... 83
References ............................................................................................................................... 90
V
Index of Tables
Table 2.1: Overview over Methods to Measure Networks ___________________________ 13
Table 2.2: Comparison of Different Classification Approaches to Analyze Networks _____ 16
Table 3.1: Description of Weighting Approaches __________________________________ 27
Table 3.2: MAPEs and Coefficient of Variation of Forecasting Tasks in Laboratory Study _ 30
Table 3.3: Differences in Forecasting Accuracy between Network Measures ____________ 31
