La lecture à portée de main
228
pages
English
Documents
Écrit par
Alena Siarheyeva
Publié par
Thesee
Obtenez un accès à la bibliothèque pour le consulter en ligne En savoir plus
Découvre YouScribe en t'inscrivant gratuitement
Découvre YouScribe en t'inscrivant gratuitement
228
pages
English
Ebook
Obtenez un accès à la bibliothèque pour le consulter en ligne En savoir plus
UNIVERSITE DE LA MEDITERRANEE (AIX-MARSEILLE II)
FACULTE DES SCIENCES ECONOMIQUES ET DE GESTION
EcoleDoctoraledeSciencesEconomiquesetdeGestiond'Aix-Marseillen 372
Thèseprésentéeetsoutenuepubliquementpourl'obtentiondu
DoctoratèsSciencesEconomiques
le16juin2010
par
ALENA SIARHEYEVA
IncomeExternalitiesinDiscountinginTwo-Sector
OverlappingGenerationsModels:
aDynamicAnalysisinAutarkyandUnderFree
Trade
DirecteurdeThèse
ALAIN VENDITTI : DirecteurdeRechercheauC.N.R.S.
MembresduJury
BERTRAND WIGNIOLLE Professeuràl'UniversitéParis1
FABRICE COLLARD DirecteurdeRechercheauC.N.R.S.;Universitéd'Adelaide
GILLES NANCY Professeuràl'UniversitéAix-MarseilleIIL'UniversitédelaMéditerranéen'entendniapprouver,nidésapprouverlesopinions
particulières du candidat : ces opinions doivent être considérées comme propres à leur
auteur.TomyparentsAbstract
This dissertation proposes a new formulation of time discounting: discount
factorasafunctionofindividualincome,referredtoasincomeexternalitiesindis-
counting. The rationale for this relationship is found in the theory of hierarchy of
human needs by Abraham Maslow (Maslow (1943)): the greater is income, inter-
preted as economic power of individuals to consume, the higher layers of needs,
associatedwithgreaterpatience,individualsseektosatisfy. Then,thethesisentails
an examination of the linkage between the externalities and two macroeconomic
phenomena: endogenous uctuations and convergence/polarization of per capita
incomes across countries. It is established that income externalities in discount-
ing could be a vehicle for endogenous uctuations in an autarkic economy. In the
extension of the autarkic model to a dynamic 2x2x2 framework, it is found that
trade integration of a volatile economy with a stable one can make uctuations to
evanesce or, on the contrary, propel them to the whole region depending on tech-
nologies and consumer preferences. Last, it is shown that trade liberalization can
result in convergence or divergence of long run per capita incomes across coun-
tries, the result consistent with empirical observations. Thus, policy interventions
areimportantforreapingbenetsfromfreetrade.
Keywords: incomeexternalitiesindiscounting,two-sectoroverlapping-generations
model,indeterminacy,endogenousuctuations,tradeliberalization,dynamicHeckscher-
Ohlinmodel,convergenceAcknowledgments
I wish to express my greatest appreciation and profound gratitude to my su-
pervisor, C.N.R.S.Research DirectorAlainVenditti, forhis professionalguidance,
highavailabilityandmotivationduringthisresearchproject.
I am very thankful to Professor Gilles Nancy, the director of DEFI, who be-
lieved in my potential and gave me an opportunity, nancial and administrative, to
accomplishmywork. Itrulyappreciateourdiscussionsatthebeginningofmydoc-
toral studies, which gave rise to the central idea of the thesis, income externalities
indiscounting.
I am indebted to Karine Gente from DEFI at the Aix-Marseille II University
forhervaluableadvisesandenthusiasticsupport.
Iwouldliketothankmyreferees,ProfessorBertrandWigniollefromtheParis
1 University and C.N.R.S. Research Director Fabrice Collard from the University
ofAdelaide,fortheirhelpfulsuggestionsthathavemademyanalysistoevolveand
tomature.
This research project was made possible thanks to the nancial support from
theFrenchGovernment.
iAcknowledgments ii
Ithanktheparticipantsoftheconference"GénérationsImbriquées,Développe-
ment et Dynamique Economique", in particular, my referee, Thomas Seegmuller
fromG.R.E.Q.A.MattheAix-MarseilleIIUniversity,forhiscomments.
ManythankstotheresearchteamofDEFI,formerlyCEDERS,MarcelAloy,
AliceFabre,MichelNormandin,DavidDiazandothermembersoftheAix-Marseille
IIUniversityfortheirsupportatvariousstagesofmywork.
IamgratefultotheadministrationoftheDoctoralSchool,PierreBatteauand
BrigitteMarcellinfortheirprofessionalmanagementandsupport.
My sincere thanks to the administrative staff, Mathilde Martelli, Armande
Poret and Jenny Ottosson for efcient management and pleasant working atmo-
sphere.
Many thanks to my colleagues and friends, Caroline Duburcq, Jean-Philippe
Garnier,ArtiomsIvlevs,FlorencePrin,CélineBreton,PaulMaarekandMohammed
Slimaniforbeinginthesameboat.
I am indebted to my parents whose moral support helped me to accomplish
my project. Last, but not least, my warmest thanks to my friend Sylvain Achard.
Hisunderstanding,patience,encouragementandnancialsupportwereinestimable
fortheadvancementandaccomplishmentofthislongproject.Contents
Contents.........................................................................iii
Preface............................................................................1
1. BackgroundandKeyConcepts ................................................. 1
2. Motivation....................................................................13
3. Summary.....................................................................18
1 WhatDeterminesIndividualImpatience? .............................. 22
1.1 Introduction................................................................23
1.2 TheDUmodel .............................................................25
1.3 RecursiveUtilityFunctions .................................................29
1.4 ConsumptionExternalitiesinDiscounting ...................................32
1.5 Income,WealthandImpatience .............................................34
1.6 TimeDiscountingasaFunctionofWealthandIncomeinGrowthModels.....50
1.7 Conclusion.................................................................59
2 Trade and Convergence in Two-Sector Overlapping-
GenerationsModels: aReview ........................................... 61
2.1 Introduction................................................................62
2.2 AutarkicEconomy .........................................................63
2.3 TheOpeningofTrade ......................................................75
iiiContents iv
2.4 ImplicationsforConvergence ...............................................84
2.5 Conclusion.................................................................86
2.A Proofoflemma5...........................................................87
3 Income Externalities in Discounting and Endogenous
FluctuationsinanAutarkicOverlappingGenerationsEconomy.... 88
3.1 Introduction................................................................89
3.2 TheModel .................................................................91
3.3 DynamicalSystem .........................................................98
3.4 DynamicPropertiesoftheNSS ............................................102
3.5 ANumericalExample .....................................................116
3.6 Conclusion ...............................................................120
3.A ACharacterizationofT(k;y;l) ............................................122
3.B Realinterestrate ..........................................................125
3.C CrossDerivativesandElasticities ..........................................126
3.D Theshareofcapital........................................................130
3.E CharacteristicPolynomial..................................................132
3.F Proofoflemma7..........................................................135
3.G Proofoflemma8..........................................................136
3.H Proofoflemma9..........................................................137
13.I Locationof" withrespecttotheothercriticalbounds" ...................138
4 IncomeExternalitiesinDiscountinginaDynamic2x2x2Model:
StabilizingEffectofRegionalIntegration? ............................140
4.1 Introduction...............................................................141
4.2 TheModel ................................................................142Contents v
4.3 PerfectForesightEquilibriumoftheGlobalEconomy.......................146
4.4 TheDynamicalSystemoftheGlobalEconomy .............................148
4.5 LocalPropertiesoftheNSS................................................150
4.6 ANumericalExample ....................................................158
4.7 Conclusion................................................................163
4.A Proofoflemma10 ........................................................166
4.B Proofoflemma11 ........................................................170
4.C Proofoflemma12 ........................................................171
4.D Proofoflemma13 ........................................................172
5 Income Externalities in Discounting and Trade: Implications
forCross-CountryPerCapitaIncomeConvergence .................173
5.1 Introduction...............................................................174
5.2 AutarkicEconomy ........................................................176
5.3 OpeningUptoTrade ......................................................181
5.4 Discussion ................................................................189
5.5 Conclusion................................................................191
5.A ProofofProposition9 .....................................................194
5.B Proofof10 ..........................................