Is Geography Destiny?

Gallup, Gaviria, and Lora
Is Geography Destiny?
LATIN AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT FORUM
he relationship between geography and development is finally receiving the
attention it deserves. For decades the prevailing sentiment was that since geography
is unchangeable, there is no reason to take it into account in public policies. IsTGeography Destiny? challenges this premise. The book argues that based on a
better understanding of geography, public policy can help control or channel its influence
toward the goals of economic and social development.
Using both an international perspective and a case study approach, the book explores Is Geography
geographical factors—land productivity, health conditions, natural disaster frequency and
intensity, and market access—to help explain differences in development between and within
countries. It concludes by proposing policies for overcoming the limitations of geography.
Is Geography Destiny? is a must read for those working in national and regional governments,
international organizations, academia, and research. Destiny?
“Is Geography Destiny? is a fascinating and important book. Because it highlights what many
of us wish were not true, it will surely provoke controversy and make some readers angry.
We don’t want to accept the immutable—whether genes or geography—as an explanation
for outcomes (poverty, underdevelopment, and so on) that we find disagreeable and want LESSONS FROM LATIN AMERICAchanged. For those who resist the diagnosis, my advice is to go first to the recommendations.
These make clear that good policy can remedy geographic disadvantages (or even turn them
into advantages). Is geography destiny then? Yes, if we refuse to pay attention to it. In other
words, if you care about development, you should read this book.”
— Peter Hakim, President, Inter-American Dialogue, Washington, D.C.
“Latin America presents us with two fascinating natural experiments, one nested within the
other, on how geography influences economic development. The ‘outer experiment’ compares
different countries, whereas the ‘inner experiment’ compares different zones within the
same country. Still other natural experiments concern the effect of city size on crime rates
and the effect of distance from the sea coast on exports. Is Geography Destiny? makes
these comparisons and will appeal to anyone interested in economic development in general
and in Latin America in particular.”
— Jared Diamond, Professor of Geography and Environmental Health Sciences, UCLA,
and author of Guns, Germs and Steel
“Gallup, Gaviria, and Lora have succeeded in applying rigorous, original thinking to one
of the most controversial debates on economic development. No one interested in the
determinants and remedies of world poverty can afford to ignore the data and analysis
offered in Is Geography Destiny?”
— Moisés Naím, Editor, Foreign Policy Magazine
John Luke Gallup
ECONOMIC COMMISSION
FOR LATIN AMERICA AND Alejandro Gaviria
THE CARIBBEAN
Eduardo Lora
INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS
INTER-AMERICAN
THE WORLD BANK STANFORD DEVELOPMENT BANKISBN 0-8213-5451-5Is Geography Destiny?Is Geography
Destiny?
LESSONS FROM
LATIN AMERICA
John Luke Gallup
Alejandro Gaviria
Eduardo Lora
INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
A COPUBLICATION OF STANFORD SOCIAL SCIENCES, AN IMPRINT OF
STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS, AND THE WORLD BANK©2003 Inter-American Development Bank
1300 New York Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20577
All rights reserved.
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A copublication of Stanford Social Sciences, an imprint of Stanford
University Press, and the World Bank.
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The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the
authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Inter-
American Development Bank.
ISBN 0-8213-5451-5 (World Rights except North America)
ISBN 0-8047-4927-2 (North America)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Gallup, John Luke, 1962-
Is geography destiny? / John Luke Gallup, Alejandro Gaviria, and
Eduardo Lora. p. cm.
“Latin American Development Forum.”
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-8213-5451-5
1. Latin America—Economic conditions. 2. Economic geography.
I. Gaviria, Alejandro, 1966- II. Lora, Eduardo, 1953- III. Title.
HC125.G255 2003
330.98—dc21
2003043288Latin American
Development Forum Series
This series was created in 2003 to promote debate, disseminate
information and analysis, and convey the excitement and complexity
of the most topical issues in economic and social development in Latin
America and the Caribbean. It is sponsored by the Inter-American De-
velopment Bank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin
America and the Caribbean, and the World Bank. The manuscripts
chosen for publication represent the highest quality in each institu-
tion’s research and activity output, and have been selected for their rel-
evance to the academic community, policymakers, researchers, and in-
terested readers.
Advisory Committee Members
Inés Bustillo, Director, Washington Office, Economic Commission for
Latin America and the Caribbean, United Nations
Guillermo Calvo, Chief Economist, Inter-American Development
Bank
Jose Luis Guasch, Regional Adviser, Latin America and Caribbean
Region, World Bank
Stephen Haber, A. A. and Jeanne Welch Milligan Professor, Depart-
ment of Political Science, Stanford University; Peter and Helen Bing
Senior Fellow, the Hoover Institution
Eduardo Lora, Principal Adviser, Research Department, Inter-
American Development Bank
José Antonio Ocampo, Executive Secretary, Economic Commission
for Latin America and the Caribbean, United Nations
Guillermo E. Perry, Chief Economist, Latin America and Caribbean
Region, World Bank
Luis Servén, Lead Economist, Latin America and Caribbean Region,
World BankAbout the Authors
John Luke Gallup is an independent economic researcher studying
problems of poverty, geography, and health in developing countries.
His current project uses earthworms to clean up Agent Orange in Viet-
nam. He recently taught economics and was a research fellow at the
Center for International Development at Harvard University. He re-
ceived a Ph.D. in economics and an M.A. in demography from the Uni-
versity of California, Berkeley.
Alejandro Gaviria is the deputy director of the Planning Department
in Colombia. He has been deputy of Fedesarrollo, Colombia’s leading
policy research institution, and researcher of the Inter-American De-
velopment Bank. He has written widely on social and institutional top-
ics. His most recent publications include journal articles on crime and
victimization, social mobility, and corruption, as well as a book on ed-
ucational policy in Colombia. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of
California, San Diego.
Eduardo Lora is the principal adviser of the Research Department of
the Inter-American Development Bank and has served as coordinator
of the Bank’s annual report Economic and Social Progress in Latin
America. He has been an associate member of Saint Antony’s College
of Oxford University, editor of Coyuntura Economica, and executive
director of Fedesarrollo. His numerous publications include an eco-
nomic statistics textbook and an introductory textbook on the Colom-
bian economy. He holds an M.Sc. in economics from the London
School of Economics.Contents
Preface xiii
INTRODUCTION: IS GEOGRAPHY DESTINY? 1
Determinism and Fatalism3
Three Viewpoints5
1THE CHANNELS OF INFLUENCE OF GEOGRAPHY:
LATIN AMERICA FROM AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE 7
The Diverse Geographical Regions of Latin America 8
History 14
Geography and Development28
Will Geography Matter in the Future? 58
Notes66
2THE OTHER SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN:
THEINFLUENCEOFGEOGRAPHY WITHIN COUNTRIES 69
Mexico71
Bolivia 78
Colombia90
Peru104
Brazil115
Conclusions126
Notes127
3 POLICIES TO OVERCOME THE LIMITATIONS OF GEOGRAPHY 131
Regional Development 131
Research and Technology134
Information and Market Signals140
Urban Policies143
ix