Global Monitoring Report 2010

Global Monitoring Report 2010
The MDGs after the CrisisGlobal Monitoring Report 2010
The MDGs after the CrisisGlobal Monitoring Report 2010
The MDGs after the Crisis© 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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ISBN: 978-0-8213-8316-2
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8424-4
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8316-2
Cover image: “Escape Route,” by Iyke Okenyi, 2006, courtesy of the World Bank Art Program.
Cover design: Debra Naylor of Naylor Design.
Interior photographs: Yosef Hadar / World Bank (10), Curt Carnemark / World Bank (28), Ray Witlin /
World Bank (68), Curt Carnemark / World Bank (96), Tran Thi Hoa / World Bank (120).Contents
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Abbreviations and Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
Goals and Targets from the Millennium Declaration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvi
Overview: MDGs after the Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1 Millennium Development Goals: Signifi cant Gains
before the Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2 Lessons from Past Crises—and How the Current
Crisis Differs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3 Growth Outlook and Macroeconomic Challenges in
Emerging and Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
4 Outlook for the Millennium Development Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
5 The International Community and Development—Trade,
Aid, and the International Financial Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
Appendix: Classifi cation of Economies by Region and Income,
Fiscal 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2010 vvi CONTENTS GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2010
Boxes
2.1 Defi ning growth cycles in developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.2 Aggregate economic shocks and gender differences: A review of the evidence . . . . . 32
2.3 Crises as opportunities for reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
2.4 Using safety nets to lower the cost of reducing poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
2.5 Are external shocks becoming more important than internal shocks for
developing countries? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.6 Human development suffered severely during crises in developing countries . . . . . . 53
2.7 Gender differences in impacts of the crisis: Evidence from East Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
3.1 Quality of macroeconomic policies in low-income countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
3.2 Mobilizing additional revenue in developing countries: Key issues for tax policy
and revenue administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
3.3 A fi scal rule for commodity exporters: The cases of Chile and Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . 87
4.1 Uncertainty and risk in projecting attainment of the MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.2 Estimating the impact of growth on human development indicators . . . . . . . . . . . 102
4.3 Assumptions for the archetype countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
4A.1 MAMS: A tool for country-level analysis of development strategies . . . . . . . . . . . 114
5.1 Facilitating trade through logistics reforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
5.2 The allocation of aid from private sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
5.3 The IMF’s engagement with low-income countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
5.4 Gender equality as smart economics: A World Bank Group action plan . . . . . . . . 143
5.5 Crisis-related initiatives of the International Finance Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
5.6 Action Plan for Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Figures
1 Serious global shortfalls loom for the human development MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2 Key indicators plummet from their overall mean during growth decelerations,
all countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
3 The long-run effect of slower growth on selected MDGs is worrisome . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.1 But Africa’s poverty rate is falling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.2 At the global level, serious shortfalls loom for the human development MDGs . . . . 14
1.3 Since the 1990s growth in developing countries has accelerated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.4 Poverty reduction is substantial in all regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.5 Another view: Poverty rates and the number of poor people are falling rapidly. . . . 15
1.6 Net enrollment rates are rising in many countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.7 Gender parity is close in primary education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.8 More people have improved sources of water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.9 Progress lacking on ratio of employment to population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.10 Female enrollment in tertiary education lags in Sub-Saharan Africa
and South Asia, 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2010 CONTENTS vii
1.11 The contraceptive prevalence rate is low for low-income countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1.12 HIV prevalence rates and estimated deaths are showing signs of decline . . . . . . . . . 22
1.13 Improving access to antiretroviral treatment is still far from universal . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.14 Fragile states have made the least progress toward the MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1.15 Progress in Sub-Saharan Africa is signifi cant but still insuffi cient—partly
because of low starting points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.16 Many countries are falling short of most MDGs, 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.17 Poverty responds less to growth when the initial poverty rate is high . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.1 Key human development and gender indicators plummet from their overall
mean during growth decelerations, all countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.2 Key human development and gender indicators also fall below their overall
means during growth decelerations in Sub-Saharan countries, if less so . . . . . . . . . 34
2.3 During growth decelerations, economic and institutional indicators diverge
far from the overall means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .