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The bulletin of European statistics2/2009
Activities of the institutions and bodies
General statistics
Target audience: Specialised/Technical
Voir
Activities of the institutions and bodies
General statistics
Target audience: Specialised/Technical
ISSN 1018-5739
SIGM THE BULLETIN OF EUROPEAN STATISTICS
02 2009
Modern tools for business cycle analysis
Colloquium in Luxembourg
SIGMA0209
2modern tools forbusiness cycle analysis
Editorial At the end of 2008, followinga now established tradition of bringingtogether academics, statisticiansand usersofofficial statistics, Eurostat organised an international colloquium in Luxembourgon modern tools forbusiness cycle analysis. The impressive attendance ofover200 participants,includingmanyeminentguests from Europe,theUSA,Canada, Korea andAustralia,was clearproofofan increased interest in the topicat a time of globaleconomicturmoil. Macroeconomic statistics,and especiallyeuro-indicators, give an overall picture ofthe economic situation and are key for analysing business cyclesand thus for policymaking based onsound economicmodelsandshort-termforecasts. In thepastcouple of years, Eurostat hasmadeprogressin improvingthequalityand timeliness ofthe indicators. We have achieved remarkable resultsthanksto theflash estimation ofGDP, inflation and retailtrade. Moreover,we are cooperatingwith Member Statesto developa methodologyto increasesubstantiallythe timelinessofGDP and thelabourcost index. We arecomplementingtraditionaldata-gatheringtechniqueswith advancedstatisticaland econometricmethods. We are attemptingto further fill gapsin timeliness, length ofthe seriesand availabilityofhigh-frequencyindicatorsto better serve our main partners:the Directorate-General forEconomicand Financial Affairsand theEuropean Central Bank. Thisiswhywe need the regularfeedback from allthose who workwith our databut also those who developtheir own methodsofdata production and analysis. The colloquia organisedby Eurostat are onesuchpossibility. The Luxembourgmeeting focused on the current statisticaltoolsand methodologies.In parallel sessions,we tackled topics such as forecastingofmacroeconomic variables,estimates ofeconomicindicators,impact ofrevisionsonshort-term analysis, qualityimprovement of infra-annual statistics,univariate and multivariate business cycle modellingand effectsof globalisation on thebusiness cycle. Needlesstosay,we also discussed how wecan improvecooperation in thefield to thebenefit ofallinvolved parties. After all,economists, statisticians, financialanalystsand academics alike willagree that a well-structured and methodologically soundEuropeanframework for business cycle analysisisagoalwellworthstriving for!
Marie Bohatá Deputy Director-General Eurostat
