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12‐005
BNP PARIBAS ECONOMIC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
/// 4Jan12 ///
France /FranceSmall decline in consumer goods spending in November Léger recul de la consommation des ménages en biens en novembre
Consumer goods spending registered a 0.1% fall in November. Though unexpected, this is a limited decline and it is tempered bthe strong rebound of cars purchases and a negative weather effect. Thanks to a favourable revision of September and October fiures, the carry-over for the fourth quarter is pushed up to +0.1%. This contributes, all else equal, to an upside risk on our growth forecast. These figures are somewhat reassuring regarding the resilience of consumption in view of the prevailing pessimism, the rise in unemployment and fiscal austerity. However, the test is severe and not yet over; it should leave its mark on consumption. Les dépenses de consommation des ménages en biens ont reculé de 0,1% sur le mois de novembre. Bien que contraire à nos attentes, c’est un recul limité et relativisé par le rebond marqué des achats automobiles et un effet météo négatif. A la faveur d’une révision favorable des chiffres de septembre et octobre, l’acquis de croissance du quatrième trimestre est rehaussé à +0,1%, ce qui contribue, toutes choses égales d’ailleurs, à entourer d’un risque haussier notre prévision de croissance. Ces chiffres rassurent quelque peu sur la résistance de la consommation face au essimisme ambiant, la remontée du chômae et la riueur budétaire. Mais l éreuve est loin d être terminée et la consommationen ressentira. Les dépenses réelles de consommation des ménages en biens ont Dépenses des ménages en biens (nov. 2011) reculé de 0,1% sur le mois de novembre. C’est une mauvaise surprise par volumes, CVSCJO, %g.a.m/m 3m/3m rapport à notre prévision d’une légère hausse. Mais elle est quelque peu 0.10.12.1 Total, dont : atténuée par l’ampleur limitée de la baisse et par des détails moins 0.10.40.0 Alimentaire négatifs. De plus, les chiffres de septembre et octobre ont été révisés 0.2 0.51.9 Produits fabriqués favorablement (hausse de 0,1% en octobre au lieu d’un chiffre nul et recul 3.1 3.85.1 Automobiles moindre en septembre, de 0,1% au lieu de 0,2%). L’acquis de croissance 0.5 0.71.4 èmeEquipement logement pour le 4trimestre est rehaussé à +0,1%. Bien que faiblement positif, il 2.1 2.3 5.8 Textile et cuir est résistant : il faudrait une baisse de 0,6% sur le mois de décembre de la 0.50.5 0.6 Autres produits fabriqués consommation en biens pour qu’elle recule sur l’ensemble du trimestre. 0.8 1.9 6.9 Energie Toutes choses égales d’ailleurs, le dernier trimestre 2011 se retrouve entouré d’un risque haussier. Une contraction de 0,2% de la consommationSource :INSEE.Les dépenses des ménages en biens représentent totale des ménages et de 0,3% du PIB est actuellement anticipée. Mais sienviron 50% de la consommation totale des ménages.la consommation se tient mieux que prévu, c’est positif pour la croissance. Parmi les détails positifs, on retiendra la stabilité des dépenses en Epreuve de résistance biens manufacturés, sauvée par le rebond des achats d’automobiles (+3,2%) qui pourrait être suivi d’un autre bon chiffre en décembre d’après▬niveau de la consommation en mds d’euros chaînés de 2005l’augmentation des immatriculations. L’effet pénalisant d’une météo 43 clémente sur la consommation d’énergie et probablement aussi les achats de textilecuir est un autre élément relativisant le recul de la consommation. 41 Et la baisse des dépenses d’équipement du logement reste limitée après deux mois de forte progression. 39 Ces chiffres ne sont pas franchement mauvais et ils rassurent quelque 37 peu sur la résistance de la consommation. Mais la dynamique de court terme (lemomentum), mesurée par la variation lissée sur trois mois, est hésitante 35 pour ne pas dire mal orientée. En glissement annuel, l’image est plus négative encore, avec une baisse de la consommation de 2,1% par rapport à 33 novembre 2010 à cause d’effets de base défavorables. Cette faiblesse continue d’être synonyme de grande fragilité d’autant plus que la31 consommation est soumise à rude épreuve et sa résistance éprouvée par le95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 très bas niveau de confiance, les pressions baissières sur le pouvoir d’achat du revenu disponible du fait de la remontée du chômage et de la rigueurINSEESource :budgétaire, l’accès limité au crédit. Jusqu’à présent, ce qui ressort dans le comportement des ménages, c’est leur prudence. Le pessimisme ambiant ne l’a pas emporté. Tant mieux mais pour combien de temps encore ? Hélène BAUDCHON helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.com
raymond.vanderputten@bnpparibas.com
laurent.quignon@bnpparibas.com
anna.dorbec@bnpparibas.com
christine.peltier@bnpparibas.com
helene.drouot@bnpparibas.com
clemente.delucia@bnpparibas.com
catherine.stephan@bnpparibas.com
Philippe d'ARVISENETChief Economist
33.1.42.98.43.86
33.1.43.16.95.51
33.1.42.98.48.45
thibault.mercier@bnpparibas.com
frederique.cerisier@bnpparibas.com
33.1 42 98 79 82
33.1.42.98.02.04
valerie.perracino@bnpparibas.com
alexandre.vincent@bnpparibas.com
jeanluc.proutat@bnpparibas.com
33.1.42.98.74.26
33.1.43.16.95.44
33.1.42.98.56.54
johanna.melka@bnpparibas.com
33.1.43.16.95.50
33.1.43.16.95.52
33.1.58.16.81.69
33.1.42.98.27.62
331.57.43.02.91
33.1.42.98.33.00
stephane.alby@bnpparibas.com
33.1.42.98.53.99
33.1.55.77.71.89
CONSULTANT Guy LONGUEVILLE
pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.com
jeanloic.guieze@bnpparibas.com
Economic Research Department
BANKING ECONOMICS Laurent QUIGNONHead
francois.faure@bnpparibas.com
sylvain.bellefontaine@bnpparibas.com
guy.longueville@bnpparibas.com
Delphine CAVALIERCéline CHOULETLaurent NAHMIAS
ECONOMIES OECD JeanLuc PROUTAT Head `France, Belgium, Luxembourg Hélene BAUDCHON`Public finance – European institutions Frédérique CERISIER`Euro Zone, Italy Monetary issues Economic modelling Clemente De LUCIA`United States, Canada Globalisation Alexandra ESTIOT`Spain, Portugal, Greece Thibault MERCIER`United Kingdom, Ireland, Nordic Countries Supervision of publications Caroline NEWHOUSE`Germany, Austria, Switzerland Catherine STEPHAN`Japan, Australia, Nederlands Environnement Pensions Raymond VAN DER PUTTEN
COUNTRY RISK François FAUREHead Christine PELTIERDeputy Head Methodology, China, Vietnam `Africa, Frenchspeaking countries Stéphane ALBY `Latin America, Turkey Sylvain BELLEFONTAINE`Middle East – Scoring (CRISTAL) Pascal DEVAUX `Russia and other CIS countries – Commodities Anna DORBEC`Asia Hélène DROUOT`Africa, English and Portuguese – speaking countries JeanLoïc GUIEZE`Asia – Capital Flows Johanna MELKA`Latin America Valérie PERRACINOGUERIN`Central and Eastern Europe Alexandre VINCENT
delphine.cavalier@bnpparibas.comceline.choulet@bnpparibas.comlaurent.nahmias@bnpparibas.com
33.1.43.16.95.58
33.1.58.16.03.63
33.1.58.16.73.32
helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.com
alexandra.estiot@bnpparibas.com
caroline.newhouse@bnpparibas.com
philippe.darvisenet@bnpparibas.com
33.1.42.98.26.77
33.1.43.16.95.40
33.1.42.98.56.27
33.1.43.16.95.41 33.1.43.16.95.54 33.1.42.98.44.24
33.1.58.16.05.84
Our publicationsConjoncturefocuses each month both on the main economic issues and structural problems. Economic Market Monitorprovides a detailed followup of the economic situation whilst analysing interest and exchange rate developments in OECD countries (8 issues per year). EcoWeekfocuses on specific and current economic issues (every Friday). EcoFlashcomments and analyses the main economic events (data releases, economic policy decisions) in the hours following their release. EcoTVmonthly broadcast programme from BNP Paribas economists. Each month, Philippe d'Arvisenet and his teams will help you to the make sense of the economic and financial news in both French and English. These interviews are available on our website. EcoTV Weekthe weekly broadcast programme from BNP Paribas economists. In a succinct twominute format, the new show, presented by one of the Group's economists, covers the economic and financial events of the previous week as well as those that are expected in the coming days. These interviews are available on our website, in both French and English
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