Vers des villes post-carbone. Six sentiers de transition. : Horizons_2_ENG

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2009

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12 janvier 2009

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Paris. http://temis.documentation.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/document.xsp?id=Temis-0065829

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Publié par

temis-developpement-durable

Publié le

12 janvier 2009

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En savoir +

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English

Poids de l'ouvrage

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COMMISSIONER-GENERAL FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

December 2009

CONTENTS

Foresight Unit News

P2lANALYSIS AND DEBATE Moving towards post-carbonecities Six transition paths

P11lFORESIGHT SCANNING

>Housing >Marine resources >Financing transport >Green jobs >Renewable energies >Demographics and geopolitics

P14lNOTES

Publications/Agenda/ International meetings and conferences

2030 2050

“Townsat the heart of the transitiontowards post-carbon societies.”

Yesterday unthin-Editorialkable, except for a few isolated visionaries, the prospect of a post-carbon (or low-carbon) society is today debated and consideredin more and more countries and front-line international organisations: United Nations, G8/G20, World Bank, OECD, European Commission... Although visions of what this post-carbon society will look like still diverge, a fairly broad consensus exists for objectives regarding globally desirable changes: a factor four reduction by 2050 of greenhouse gas emissions (for countries of the North); almost total independence of carbon-based energies (oil, but also gas and coal); sufﬁcient capacity for adaptation to climate change; and ﬁnally, greater attention to the least acceptable situations of energy vulnerability. Although the sustainable town cannot be reduced to those few criteria, we are talking here about major changes that all actors will progressively have to anticipate,as the threats linked to climate change and the scarcity of fossil fuels become reality. How? At what pace? With what constraints? These are the questions that are being asked of us collectively or individually.In this context, the role of towns,and indirectly local authorities,still remains broadly open to debate.For although everyone agrees on their importance in energyconsumption and greenhouse gas emissions, disagreement remains on their room for manoeuvre given, in particular, the extraordinary inertia of urban systems... It is for this reason that the second issue of Horizons 2030-2050 is entirely dedicated to them.JACQUES THEYS Head of the Foresight Unit

Questions/answerswith GÉRARD MAGNIN Head of the European ÉNERGIE-CITÉS network CGDD :By 2020, what changes can we hopeCGDD :Under what conditions can majorCGDD :What place would you attribute to see in towns’ climate policies? changes be envisaged by 2050? to foresight in these transitions? GM :Ten years is not a long time. We will needGM :Is realism on the side of radical changeGM :Essential, but not sufﬁciently considered to combine action and direction coherently. or gradually changing trends? Minor changes today as a public decision-making tool, more to Action is what can actually be done “without without pervading vision are often appreciated guide short term decisions. And yet the energy regrets” in construction, soft transport, short because they shake up the day-to-day and climate challenge is to align short, medium routes, proximity of services and so forth. hum-drum. We like major challenges when and long term futures. Looking forward to Direction is about the factor 4 trajectory: they project an area towards a future that we futures other than the one we know is difﬁcult. territorial quantiﬁcation of emissions, quantiﬁed can proud of. This is the case of tram systems But tomorrow will not be an extension of objectives, action in France, towns tending towards zero fossil yesterday. Correcting damaging trends is not plans and upgrading fuels or 50% urban cycle travel. Fixing about changing trajectory. Collectively imagi-sectoral and urban objectives which stir enthusiasm helps ning a low consumption town on the basis of planning policies. overcome resistance to change. minor signals which are perceived in our towns These are untried will open up the way to the necessary waters! transitions. Do we have any other choice?

Ministry of Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and the Sea, in charge of Green Technologies and Climate Change Negotiations

www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr

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