THE DEATH OF OSAMA BIN LADEN

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esai@esai.com

May2,,2011

THE DEATH OF OSAMA BIN LADEN

ThedeathofOsamabinLadenwillhaveanumberofshortandlong‐termimpactsonthestabilityandsecurityofthegreaterMiddleEastandSouthAsia.Theimplicationsfortheoilmarketareunclear.TothedegreethatthiseventweakenstheterroristthreatinoilproducingcountriesandunderscorestheeffectivenessofUScovertoperations,wecouldseethedollarstrengthenandcommoditiesweaken.Ontheotherhand,tothedegreethiseventspawnsawaveofpoorlyplannedbutdestructiveterroristattacks,itcouldincreasetheriskpremiuminoilprices..Asoutlinedbelow,webelievebinLaden’sdeathisasignificantblowtotheglobaljihadofalQaeda.

ThedeathofOsamabinLadenwillhaveanumberofshortandlong‐termimpactsonthestabilityandsecurityofthegreaterMiddleEastandSouthAsia.Whiletheanalysisofeffectswillevolveovertimeasreactionsaroundtheworldcomeinandaregauged,whatfollowsisaquickreactiontothenewsthatU.S.militaryandintelligenceforceskilledtheleaderofalQaeda.Intheveryshortterm,twoissuescometothefore.ThefirstiswhetheralQaedamembersoraffili‐ atedorganizationschoosetoattemptterroristattacksinretaliationforbinLaden’sdeath.Already,astatementhasbeenissuedinalQaeda’snamethreateningattacksonU.S.andotherWesterntargets.Whileimportant,itisworthconsideringthatmostoftheprimaryterroristorganizationsintermsofca‐ pabilitieswerealreadylikelyintheplanningstagesforsomesortofattacks.ThedeathofbinLadenmaycausethemtoaltertimetablesortargets,butitwillnotnecessarilychangetheirfundamentalmo‐ tivationsorplanssubstantiallyintheshortrun.Again,intheveryshortrun,ifterroristorganizationsspeedupplanningforanalready‐contemplatedattack,theymayprovidemoreopportunitiesforlawenforcementorintelligenceorganizationstodetectthepreparations.OneofthehallmarksofalQaedahasbeenitsstrategicpatience–takingalongperiodoftimetometiculouslyplananattackandnotal‐ lowingday‐to‐dayeventsaffectthatplanningortheattacktimeline.WhetherallalQaeda‐affiliatedgroupscanmaintainsuchoperationaldisciplineintheimmediateaftermathofbinLaden’sdeathisaquestion.ThesecondshortrunissueishowthehowtheU.S.governmenthandlesissuessuchasreleasingdetailsoftheraidandpictures/evidenceofbinLaden’sbody.FollowersandsupportersofbinLaden,alQaeda,andassociatedgroupswillfindfaultwithwhatWashingtondoesregardlessofhowcarefullyithasplannedthisportionoftheoperation.SomeconspiracytheoristswillattempttoshowthatbinLadenisstillaliveandthattheentireoperationwasahoax.ThemoreinterestingquestionishowthebroaderIslamicworldseesU.S.actions.TothedegreethatthisactionisseenasdirectlyconnectedtotheSeptember11attacksandnotaspartofabroaderU.S.attackonIslamicstatesortheMuslimcom‐ munity,itislikelytoelicitverylittlereaction.Inthelongerterm,thetwoissuesofinterestarehowthisaffectsU.S.policyinAfghanistan/ Pakistan,andhowbinLaden’sdeath–alongwiththeArabspring–maymarkarealchangeinthelevelofappealoftheideologyofalQaedaanditsassociatedmovements.IntermsofwhattheUnitedStateshastermedits“AFPAK”strategy,binLaden’sdeathprovidestheObamaadministrationwithgreaterflexibilitytodefinewhetherithasmetitsgoalsintheAfghanistan/Pakistanregion.InDecember2010,FormoreinfoonESAI’sresearchandservices,contactESAIatesai@esai.com©2011AllRightsReserved

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