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PR Newswire
LONDON, March 23, 2014
Lord Ashcroft Europe poll:
Voters are evenly split over whether or not Britain should remain in the EU, according to new research from Lord Ashcroft. Nearly two thirds (62%) believe other countries seem to get more out of EU membership than Britain does, and voters are more likely to think the costs of membership outweigh the benefits (49%) than the reverse (31%).
The findings are published today in Europe on Trial, a report by Lord Ashcroft based on a poll of more than 20,000 people. He also held a discussion event involving 80 members of the public representing a cross-section of opinion towards Britain's relationship with Europe.
The research found:
The research identified five segments of opinion towards Britain and the EU:
Committed Hostility (19% of the population): 95% say Britain should leave the EU; 86% say immigration is one of the three most important issues facing the country; 58% think UKIP would do the best job of managing Britain's relationship with Europe.
Discontented Sceptics (27% of the population): 88% think the costs of EU membership outweigh the benefits but only 68% want to leave; most likely to say the Conservatives would do the best job of managing relations with Europe but few are confident that Cameron's renegotiation will succeed.
Relaxed Status Quo (26% of the population): do not rate defending Britain's interests in Europe as one of the most important issues facing the country; two thirds think the benefits of membership outweigh the costs; 83% say Britain should stay in the EU.
Global Progressives (12% of the population): positive about EU membership; the only segment among whom a majority (86%) think Britain gets as much out of the EU as other countries do; younger, professional, more public sector workers and Labour voters.
Disengaged (15% of the population): younger, less likely to vote; 82% say they do not know if costs of membership outweigh benefits; 61% do not know whether Britain should remain an EU member.
In his introduction to the Europe on Trial report, Lord Ashcroft says:
"Those who say the whole country is clamouring for a referendum are wrong. Some, certainly, think it is the greatest question of our time. But even among the most hostile voters, only a third put Europe among the most crucial issues facing the country, and only a quarter think it important to them and their families. That is why Cameron's 'negotiate and decide' policy will please some voters but won't win the election all by itself.
"More to the point, many people say they don't know enough to make such a fundamental choice about Britain's future. Two thirds think what happens in the European Parliament matters to Britain, but three quarters have hardly a clue what goes on there. They do not feel in a position to decide.
"Part of the problem is that sceptics think the EU appeals most to a remote and privileged few, while many pro-Europeans think their opponents are narrow-minded and jingoistic. To everyone else, it seems a noisy argument in which facts are hard to come by and most of the participants seem more than a bit bonkers."
Lord Ashcroft concludes:
"For now, the sceptics are making the running. But my polling shows people will want to be reassured about our prospects outside the EU before making the leap - and that the better-off-outers in particular need to take care not to sound too batty.
"The pro side, meanwhile, seem hesitant about their case. Fear of the unknown is their greatest ally, but many voters want to hear more than a defensive message that Britain can't survive alone."
Notes to Editors